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Lets start with the facts….the technical model has flashed a SELL sign for the long term S&P holder (the first since 2011) and the asset model has equities target at 13% of total holdings.  So both separate technical models are advocating taking a cash-centric, conservative position. read more

I was just reading today where the past six months has been one of the calmest times in the history of the market relative to daily volatility.  So when the S&P drops 5.8% in a week it magnifies the loss, whereas in a normal run of things this kind of volatility would not be so uncommon. read more

Yes the market dropped today but you have to look at it in the grand scheme.  Below are graphs going back to 2005.  Technically the S&P will need some more confirming sideways or downward action to be material to an intermediate or long term investor.  Additionally the asset allocation has shifted slightly (200 basis points) away from equities but not decidedly. read more

The asset/bond ratios of 52%/27% has not changed, but the market is in a consolidation, sideways phase.  Now would not be the time to put a lot of new money in this market.  Small caps continue bruised, midcaps a bit less so, and large caps largely sideways.  This is the beginning of a classic breakdown but it has not proceeded much further in the past few weeks. read more

There continues to be some underlying decay in the market — note below that small and mid-cap indices are showing short term weakness in the technical model, while large caps (usually the last to fall) are still ok despite the Friday drop. read more