No surprise here.
No surprise here.
Some tickers with status based on model current version 112.
I have begun the process of bringing the investing model up to date. I will be posting its results, ongoing changes, a series of articles on how the technical model functions, and relevant data.
I have not posted in some time but have been refining the technical model. It has been subject to about 25 version updates, and I am preparing for a call on what will likely be a material up or down movement in the market. There is a history of such a thing when the market trades for some time in a narrow range, as it has since July.
On an hourly basis, the technical model would have had you buy the S&P at 1967 on March 1. The S&P closed at 2072 on April 1. So were we to play that game, investing using hourly data, then we would be long the market.
On Wednesday March 2nd I presented at the monthly Atlanta Technical Analysis Society meeting. The presentation was on backward and forward testing using Amibroker. But for this audience emphasis was on getting comfortable with the idea of using Amibroker. Presentation is attached.
The best way to understand the market is to look at it in various timeframes.
Below is a picture of the S&P since 1982. The shaded areas are official “recessionary” periods. At a weekly level the technical model is saying Sell in all periods. So we start with the overarching long term trend as downward.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.8% last week and ended at 1864.78.
As I noted last week, don’t be surprised if this market rises a bit again before a further drop. Technically it appears to be rolling over, but these things don’t happen overnight.
The advice from the January 17 post is still in effect. As the S&P 500 toys with 1880 (it closed at 1853 today) you should prepare for a material drop if that 1880 level does not hold. By now you should only have a small equity position.
As noted in prior posts the 1880 mark for the S&P (which is currently at 1940) has proven an important measure. When 1880 holds there is always the likelihood that we might see another leg up in the market. If 1880 fails there is almost certainly going to be a material collapse to the downside.