Category Archives: Uncategorized

DL Miley Picks for 2020

I struggled to find 5 top picks for 2020, I was only able to come up with 2:

 

  1.  DR Horton (DHI).  I think this homebuilder, currently at about $53, will reach $86 by year end.  With low rates and a booming economy this is my top pick.  EPS growth over the last 5 years was about 24% and return on equity is about 17%, current P/E is only 12, so I think this stock is undervalued.
  2. LCI Industries (LCII).  This auto component supplier, currently at about $108, is undervalued and could reach about $164 by year end.  It also sports a dividend yield of about 2.4% as a bonus.  EPS growth over the last 5 years was about 23% and return on equity is 18%.  The P/E is a bit high at about 20, but expected EPS growth is 20% so I still think that this stock is undervalued.

For a speculative pick, I still like ROKU, as it is not tied to single streaming supplier – it supports Disney+, Hulu, Netflix, just about every streamer out there.  And they have their own ad-supported Roku Channel.  As I said on traditional value metrics I would not pick them but I bought a small amount of shares back in 2018 at about $47, and the stock is now about $148!  I still think that this stock has room to grow.   read more

OTM Market Update – Preparing for a Trend to Emerge

As noted in prior posts the 1880 mark for the S&P (which is currently at 1940) has proven an important measure.  When 1880 holds there is always the likelihood that we might see another leg up in the market.  If 1880 fails there is almost certainly going to be a material collapse to the downside.

The S&P bounced off of 1880 and is now at 1940.  Intermediate and Long term indicators are still leading downward, and for that reason today I include a look at DOG, which is the S&P Inverse ETF.  While not yet a BUY it represents an opportunity to make money in a bear market for those Intermediate term investors whose assets are already properly allocated.  When DOG fires a BUY I will pass that along in an update.

The S&P was down 5.1% in January.  TLT (long bonds) were UP 5.5% in January not including the associated dividend income.  This again stresses the importance of asset allocation.  We continue to be about 80% Fixed / 20% Market as we wait for this relative volatility to pass and reveal a trend that intermediate term investors can capitalize upon.

01312016 DOG

01312016 GSPC 01312016 TLT 01312016 GSPC hourly

OTM Investment Club Meeting – Monday, May 11 at 7 PM

This is a reminder of the upcoming investment club meeting at the date a time listed above.

Dial in: 502-292-4847, Conference ID: 53422

Please review the minutes from last month’s meeting prior to the call and other club-related posts.

Ed Gawarecki will be presenting a potential investment.  We will need a volunteer for the June meeting, preferably someone who hasn’t done so before.

Sell or Hold CVS

I have exchanged messages with Mark about CVS and did not sell yesterday (and fortunately there was a nice gain).   Per Mark “Everything is green including sector and industry… consider trailing stop loss of $95.02.  See chart below and please vote to either proceed  with sales at market or to hold with a trailing stop loss.

CVS Technicals