Monday 3/29 Dagnino article on Bond Markets

On Monday Dagnino wrote an article on the Bond Market.  He is right.  His takeaways in his own words:
  • The markets have been tightening by raising the cost of long-term money. The Fed cannot do anything about it. They cannot lower interest rates because they are at zero percent.
  • More debt (stimulus) cannot overcome the tightening caused by rising bond yields.
  • The business cycle is much closer to the end of Phase 2 (strong growth phase) than the beginning of Phase 1 (beginning of the expansion phase). 
The most important point is that third bullet:  when we hit end of Phase 2 the economy will overheat and begin to top off.  The market generally leads the economy by 6 months.  So it is important to keep careful watch on things.  Individual stocks and individual sectors will lead and roll over earlier than others.  In the meantime inflation should continue to climb. read more

Dagnino post 3/1 on Economic Phase, TLT

A couple of takeaways from Dagnino’s post at 12:05am this morning:
  • He believes that we are in Phase 2 of the economic cycle.  Our algorithms agree with that.  It bodes well in the near term for stocks.
  • He says that TLT is a trading opportunity.  He shows a chart where ROC (Rate of Change) is below a target of -10.  To me that is a short term trading opportunity.  Good to take a flyer on, but lon-term TLT is going down due to the influx of money into the economy.  Inflation will be on the rise at least for a while, and the FED won’t stop it because to a point (2% or so 3 mo treasury rate) that is where they want it. read more

V53 Model Refinement Using Fidelity Economic Cycle Analysis

The linking of economic cycles with the technical investing algorithms is an important part of our ETF algorithm.  The model has been updated to Version 53 to include refined economic criteria.


In Version 53 the trade entry logic was further refined using an analysis that was conducted by Fidelity Investments and summarized in the table below.  As a result of this refinement the backtesting results (1/1/2003 – current period for our target ETF securities) for the algorithm have improved slightly: read more

George Dagnino Market Opinion January 27

In a post in SeekingAlpha on January 27th of this year ( George Dagino wrote:


“The last bottom of the business cycle took place in March 2020. Growth should therefore show a peak in 2022, assuming the upward leg of the cycle is two years. This should be also the time growth in earnings will begin to slow down. read more

Equity ETF Selection

As I shared in a previous post, Mark and I have been on a journey of selecting a portfolio of ETF’s to include in the modified three bucket approach.

After various iterations and experiments, we have settled on a “Magic 8” as the Equity portion of the portfolio (our buckets 3 and 4).  At the core of the eight (8) are a set of five (5) sector ETFs from George Dagnino with one substitution: read more

Retirement Strategy Portfolio – ETF Selection Process – Overview and Introduction

I have spent numerous hours researching ETF’s to include in our model portfolio.  As Mark has shared in other posts, we are using the “Three Bucket” approach recommended by Christina Benz with Morningstar.  In her articles, she includes investments for the three buckets for a moderate and aggressive portfolios.  If you are interested in the articles and unable to find them based upon Mark’s previous posts or doing Bing or Google searches, let me know and I will gladly share. read more

george dagnino

Our analytic approach is designed to link technical investing techniques with economic data. This is described in many of the presentations by George Dagnino. We are attempting to automate this approach using the Amibroker trading software for convenience.

Dagnino’s books that we are baking into this analysis include “Easy Ways to Beat the Market with ETFs” and “Profiting in Bull or Bear Markets”. read more