Mark Bates

OTM Market Update – Reversion to the Mean

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Prior Week Market Performance:

  • The S&P large caps gained 1.7% last week to 2102.06.
  • The Russell 2000 small caps gained 1.7% last week to 1264.77.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) lost 0.8% last week to 129.62.
  • Asset Allocation Model: Stocks (dropped to 42% from 47.25%); Bonds (rose to 41% from 34.25%); Discretionary (11.75%)

 Last Commentary (Two Weeks Ago):  The market dropped a bit last week and large caps shifted to SELL, but there are reasons to only light the inquiry sign and not overreact.   Again only an indication of fraying, and a reason to light the “Inquiry” sign (as they say in Kentucky), but not a reason to panic. read more

OTM Market Update – Fraying a little but still ok

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Prior Week Market Performance:

  • The S&P large caps lost 2.2% last week to 2061.02.
  • The Russell 2000 small caps lost 2.0% last week to 1240.41.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) lost 0.3% last week to 131.06.
  • Asset Allocation Model: Stocks (dropped to 47.25% from 52.5%); Bonds (rose to 34.25% from 27.5%); Discretionary (18.5%)

 Last Week’s Commentary:  This cannot go on forever, but for right now everyone is an investing expert.  As long as the Fed sets the table the market will eat.  For now. read more

OTM Market Update – More of the Same

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Prior Week Market Performance:

  • The S&P large caps gained 2.6% last week to 2108.06.
  • The Russell 2000 small caps gained 2.8% last week to 1266.37.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) gained 3.8% last week to 131.51.
  • Asset Allocation Model: unchanged.  Stocks (52.5%); Bonds (27.5%); Discretionary (20%)

 Last Commentary (two weeks ago):  The Asset Allocation model remains unchanged for long term investors.  IF we were to get further deterioration then it would be time to take a different tack.  We get closer to a shift from long bonds, but not yet.  Not yet.  Be patient. read more