Year: 2015

The asset/bond ratios of 52%/27% has not changed, but the market is in a consolidation, sideways phase.  Now would not be the time to put a lot of new money in this market.  Small caps continue bruised, midcaps a bit less so, and large caps largely sideways.  This is the beginning of a classic breakdown but it has not proceeded much further in the past few weeks. read more

There continues to be some underlying decay in the market — note below that small and mid-cap indices are showing short term weakness in the technical model, while large caps (usually the last to fall) are still ok despite the Friday drop. read more

While there may certainly be instability this week as a result of the ongoing financial crisis in Greece, the more interesting observation is the number of market technicians and others that are saying that Greece is the tipping point and that the market will head toward correction as a result. read more

This is a snapshot of some pictures from the technical model after the past few days of Greek-related uncertainty.

The Short Term is a sell for the large and mid-cap markets, but things still look ok in the small and micro-cap elements of the market, likely due to the lack of overseas exposure.  Long bonds continue to drag — the market continues to believe that rates will rise later in the year and that the Fed is serious. read more