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Tariffs and China…

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I have been thinking about the tariffs and their effects on the economy. They never should have been necessary. I think the decline of US manufacturing started when Nixon went to China. I think he should have left them alone to wither on the vine of communism. Then in the eighties, we actually gave Most Favorite Nation status to China! I remember at the time saying WTF they are communists! The final nail in the coffin was started under Clinton and completed by Bush when China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO)! Everyone at the time, said, oh wow, American companies now have a billion customers! No! The Chinese were playing chess while we were playing checkers. They ramped up manufacturing and sold us everything from T-shirts to TVs – even medicines. They are selling us the rope to hang ourselves.  Was this all worth it to get cheap stuff at Walmart?  I don’t think so.   read more

Commentary for the week ending 04/29/2022

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Well, this has been a rough week (and month/quarter), especially for growth investors.  I have been particularly disappointed in PYPL and NFLX.  I think that NFLX will recover – I think worries over subscriber defections are overblown.  There is still room for growth, especially outside of the US.  But we will see.  As for PYPL, I am less than sanguine.  Management has been less than open with their reports.  So I can’t say I would buy more.  As for the rest of the stocks, stay the course and I still think you will be rewarded.  I am especially confident that AMZN will rebound.  Increases in Amazon Prime cost will absorb some of the higher shipping costs and it seems that AWS is unstoppable in the cloud market.  So buy more AMZN with confidence in long term returns.  I know that the fund has failed to beat the S&P so far this year, so again, in the long term I feel that these stocks will win. read more

Commentary for week ending 03/05/2022

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With all of the events happening in Ukraine, my comments will be somewhat brief.  

 

I want to remind you that panic is not a strategy.  Baron Rothschild, an 18th-century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with this saying:  “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”  This is an important reminder, especially if you are a 401k and/or IRA investor building your portfolio.  So continue to make regular investments in the market and don’t worry.  And if you are following my 90/10 rule on allocation, put the 10% cash to use!   read more

Commentary for the first 2 weeks of 2022

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Well, the first 2 weeks have been rough for the Growth Fund.  Recognition of inflation is finally showing up in the market, leading to a tech sector selloff.  I think much of the selloff is unjustified, particularly in the chip sector like LRCX, AMAT, and NVDA.  I think that these stocks will recover and exceed expectations by the end of the year.  So be patient, I think that these stocks represent buying opportunities – in fact, all of the stocks in the growth fund represent good values right now.  And Amazon is bargain priced now, I never thought I would say that about them but with AWS and the retail sector recovering, I see the stock at about 4,000 by year end.   It is a top pick now. read more

Review of 2021 and Picks for 2022

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My 2021 picks for the Growth Fund did pretty well, didn’t they?  Fortinet and Nvidia hit the ball out of the park!  But they were balanced out on the downside by BABA, OLLI and VIPS.  The fund would have down so much better without the losers, but hey, I still beat the S&P.  And I did advise taking profits in BABA and VIPS when they were up substantially.  OLLI never did get any traction, did it?  For 2022, I hope to do better (no Chinese stocks for me!), so here are my stocks in order of preference (some are carry overs from last year): read more

Enron Bankruptcy “Anniversary”

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Enron filed for bankruptcy 20 years ago today:

 

Enron Files For Bankruptcy – HISTORY

 

Enron had a lot of good ideas but corrupt management ruined it. I actually bought Enron shares in the 1990’s because I liked the idea of deregulation (which has saved consumers money). Fortunately for me, I sold my shares in 2000 and early 2001. The bankruptcy was a lesson for employees to NOT invest all of their retirement savings in their employer! I limit my stock exposure to no more than 5% in any one stock, regardless of how allegedly “safe” an investment is.  Just think about General Motors, Sears, JC Penney, Kodak, Polaroid, etc.  In 1975, if someone said GM would go under, they would be laughed out of the room!  So, protect yourself from the fate of Enron employees who tied up most of their retirement savings in one company! read more

November 2021 Observations

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November was a month where the S&P dropped less than 1% but there were frequent swings in both the index and in the underlying market exuberance.

 

It is worth mentioning that December is usually a good month for the market.  It is worth mentioning that initial concerns about a COVID variant may be overblown.  It is worth mentioning that inflation may just be transient. read more