Mark Bates

There continues to be some underlying decay in the market — note below that small and mid-cap indices are showing short term weakness in the technical model, while large caps (usually the last to fall) are still ok despite the Friday drop. read more

While there may certainly be instability this week as a result of the ongoing financial crisis in Greece, the more interesting observation is the number of market technicians and others that are saying that Greece is the tipping point and that the market will head toward correction as a result. read more

This is a snapshot of some pictures from the technical model after the past few days of Greek-related uncertainty.

The Short Term is a sell for the large and mid-cap markets, but things still look ok in the small and micro-cap elements of the market, likely due to the lack of overseas exposure.  Long bonds continue to drag — the market continues to believe that rates will rise later in the year and that the Fed is serious. read more

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Prior Week Market Performance:

• The S&P large caps lost 0.4% last week to 2108.29.
• The Russell 2000 small caps lost 3.1% last week to 1228.11.
• Long Bonds (TLT) lost 3.9% last week to 124.00.
• Asset Allocation Model: Stocks – 52.5%; Bonds 27.5%; Discretionary 20%

 Two Week’s Ago Commentary:  Right now the market technical direction is unchanged.  Still looks good in the intermediate and long term.

Current Technical Model Indicators (Short, Med, Long periods): read more

Prior Week Market Performance:

• The S&P large caps lost 1.0% last week to 2081.18.
• The Russell 2000 small caps lost 1.0% last week to 1251.86.
• Long Bonds (TLT) gained 1.4% last week to 131.45.
• Asset Allocation Model: Stocks (gained to 47.25% from 42%); Bonds (dropped to 34.25% from 41%); Discretionary (19.50%)

 Last Week’s Commentary:  The long and medium term trends are still intact, but I would expect this upcoming week to be a down week in the market.  If you are strictly intermediate or long term, there is nothing to see here, although if you are heavily weighted in equities you may want to hedge a bit into bonds. read more