Mark Bates

OTM Market Update – December 6 – still buying

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  • The S&P large cap index gained 0.4% last week, rising to 2075.37.
  • The Russell 2000 small cap index rose 0.8% last week to 1182.43.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) lost 1.1% last week to 121.09.
  • Asset Allocation Model: unchanged. 52% Stocks, 27% Bonds, 20% Optional.

As has been true the past four weeks, the S&P technical model says BUY in all periods.  The month of December is also traditionally a good month for the market.

The broad market indexes, as well as long term bonds, are BUY in the technical model.  A 4% correction in the S&P would not presently violate any trend lines, so don’t be surprised (and don’t panic) if you see a bit of volatility and some profit taking before the end of December. read more

OTM Market Update – November 30 – BUY all around week #3

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  • The S&P gained 0.2% last week, rising to 2067.56.
  • The Russell 2000 rose 0.1% last week to 1173.23.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) rose 2.0% last week to 122.49.
  • Asset Allocation Model: unchanged. 52% Stocks, 27% Bonds, 20% Optional.

As has been true the past three weeks, the S&P technical model says BUY in all periods.  The small cap Russell 2000 has now flashed BUY.  Overall market performance across the board is “in gear” with a rising market.  The Asset Allocation model remains bullish, with stock allocation at 52%.  As the charts below indicate, now is generally a good time to enter the market with wise buys. read more

OTM Market Update November 22 – BUY all around

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  • The S&P gained 1.2% last week, rising to 2063.50.
  • The Russell 2000 lost 0.1% last week, falling to 1172.42.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) rose 0.5% last week, rising to 120.10.
  • Asset Allocation Model:  52% Stocks, 27% Bonds, 20% Optional.

As has been true the past two weeks, the S&P technical model says BUY in all periods.  The small cap Russell 2000 has now flashed BUY.  Overall market performance across the board is “in gear” with a rising market.  The Asset Allocation model is slightly even more bullish, with stock allocation rising to 52%.  As the charts below indicate, now is generally a good time to enter the market with wise buys. read more

OTM Market Update November 8 – Back to Trend

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  • The S&P gained 0.9% last week, rising to 2031.21.
  • The Russell 2000 lost 0.2% last week, falling to 1171.86.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) fell 0.7% last week, falling to 118.39.
  • Asset Allocation Model:  50% stocks, 30% Bonds, 20% Optional.

At this time the technical models for the S&P, Russell 2000, and Long Bonds are all BUY.  The Asset Allocation model has recovered back to 50% stocks.  The underlying market strength that has propelled the S&P 500 all year long has driven the market back above all of the long term trend lines dating back to the beginning of the rally in 2009. I discussed as recently as last week the breakdown in small stocks, and the divergences between the major market index and what was happening to underlying stocks.  This has been a familiar story for much of 2014, so too is this advice:  follow the quantitative models, which have been correctly positive on the market as well as long term bonds for quite some time now.  The November-December period is traditionally a strong period for the market, which no doubt is fueling some investor confidence. I don’t like the underlying divergences, but as the indexes are going up and the models say BUY, who am I to argue? read more