Year: 2015

OTM Market Update – A Change in Tone

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Prior Week Market Performance:

  • The S&P large caps lost 0.4% last week to 2108.29.
  • The Russell 2000 small caps lost 3.1% last week to 1228.11.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) lost 3.9% last week to 124.00.
  • Asset Allocation Model: Stocks – 52.5%; Bonds 27.5%; Discretionary 20%

 Two Week’s Ago Commentary:  Right now the market technical direction is unchanged.  Still looks good in the intermediate and long term.

Current Technical Model Indicators (Short, Med, Long periods): read more

OTM Market Update –

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Prior Week Market Performance:

  • The S&P large caps lost 1.0% last week to 2081.18.
  • The Russell 2000 small caps lost 1.0% last week to 1251.86.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) gained 1.4% last week to 131.45.
  • Asset Allocation Model: Stocks (gained to 47.25% from 42%); Bonds (dropped to 34.25% from 41%); Discretionary (19.50%)

 Last Week’s Commentary:  The long and medium term trends are still intact, but I would expect this upcoming week to be a down week in the market.  If you are strictly intermediate or long term, there is nothing to see here, although if you are heavily weighted in equities you may want to hedge a bit into bonds. read more

OTM Market Update – Reversion to the Mean

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Prior Week Market Performance:

  • The S&P large caps gained 1.7% last week to 2102.06.
  • The Russell 2000 small caps gained 1.7% last week to 1264.77.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) lost 0.8% last week to 129.62.
  • Asset Allocation Model: Stocks (dropped to 42% from 47.25%); Bonds (rose to 41% from 34.25%); Discretionary (11.75%)

 Last Commentary (Two Weeks Ago):  The market dropped a bit last week and large caps shifted to SELL, but there are reasons to only light the inquiry sign and not overreact.   Again only an indication of fraying, and a reason to light the “Inquiry” sign (as they say in Kentucky), but not a reason to panic. read more

OTM Market Update – Fraying a little but still ok

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Prior Week Market Performance:

  • The S&P large caps lost 2.2% last week to 2061.02.
  • The Russell 2000 small caps lost 2.0% last week to 1240.41.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) lost 0.3% last week to 131.06.
  • Asset Allocation Model: Stocks (dropped to 47.25% from 52.5%); Bonds (rose to 34.25% from 27.5%); Discretionary (18.5%)

 Last Week’s Commentary:  This cannot go on forever, but for right now everyone is an investing expert.  As long as the Fed sets the table the market will eat.  For now. read more