Year: 2014
TSAASF technical investing certificate program – only $99 dollars
I am a member of the TSAASF, and they are now offering a $99 program that provides an online-based overview of technical investing as well as a certificate. This is a bargain, and would help you to develop a technical base to your fundamental analysis. The invitation follows:
OnTheMark Investing Meeting – Monday August 18, 2014
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OnTheMark Investment Club meeting – Monday August 18 7:00pm – Connect Information
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Meeting Monday August 18 – Technical Analysis
Various technical charts follow for securities to be discussed at the OnTheMark Investment Club meeting tomorrow night. Immediately after this paragraph are also links to the updated M McCarl OTM Valuation Spreadsheet for each holding.
MUR technically
See previous post from Mike Bates. I opened up a new post so that I could post the graphic below — otherwise this would have been a comment on Mike’s observation.
MUR technically looks like it has some resistance at $59, and again at $55. Given its high three year correlation to the market, and large beta of 1.8, a drop below 58 is not unlikely. A drop below $57 would result in a Club loss. I suspect that at least temporarily we might see a drop below $57, but it is the $55 level that would be the indicator. If this stock drops below $55 it also likely means that the S&P has dropped below its long term support trendline. Technical indicators right now mirror that of the S&P — short term SELL but holds for Intermediate and Long term. The $55 line is the material one here.
Useful Guide
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Murphy Oil Update
Murphy Oil (MUR) had a bad week last week. Last Wednesday it reported lousy second quarter earnings:
“Murphy Oil Corp.’s second-quarter profit fell sharply as costs surged and the company took loss from discontinued operations. The El Dorado, Ark., company spun off its U.S. retail marketing business last year and now focuses mainly on gas-and-oil extraction in the U.S., Canada and Malaysia. For the most recent period, Murphy posted a net profit of $129.4 million, or 72 cents a share, down from $402.6 million, or $2.12 a share, a year ago. Earnings from continuing operations fell to $142.7 million, or 79 cents a share, compared with year-ago results of $259.9 million, or $1.37 cents a share. Excluding certain items, including mark-to-market loss on crude oil derivative contracts and other items, adjusted per-share earnings from continuing operations fell to 90 cents from $1.38 a share. Revenue edged up nearly 2% to $1.35 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected profit of $1.21 a share and revenue of $1.42 billion. Looking ahead, Murphy Oil said it expects total annual world-wide production of about 220,000 to 225,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, primarily reflecting reductions at two properties and revisions for further production risks.”
Be Patient
The S&P dropped 2.7% this past week to end at 1925, but technically this was a needed correction and nothing more. A continued drop past 1905 will likely indicate a medium term correction, and a continued drop past 1841 will indicate significant long term changes. The technical model is still indicates that Medium and Long term periods are fine.