ETF | OnTheMark Investing

OTM Market Update – Inspection

February 28, 2016 by Mark Bates

The best way to understand the market is to look at it in various timeframes.

Below is a picture of the S&P since 1982. The shaded areas are official “recessionary” periods. At a weekly level the technical model is saying Sell in all periods. So we start with the overarching long term trend as downward. read more

OTM Market Update – Reiteration

February 8, 2016 by Mark Bates

The advice from the January 17 post is still in effect. As the S&P 500 toys with 1880 (it closed at 1853 today) you should prepare for a material drop if that 1880 level does not hold. By now you should only have a small equity position. read more

OTM Market Update – Preparing for a Trend to Emerge

January 21, 2021January 31, 2016 by Mark Bates

As noted in prior posts the 1880 mark for the S&P (which is currently at 1940) has proven an important measure. When 1880 holds there is always the likelihood that we might see another leg up in the market. If 1880 fails there is almost certainly going to be a material collapse to the downside. read more

OTM Market Update – Following the Model Part 2

September 1, 2015 by Mark Bates

The technical model is now 2.3% ahead of the market over the past 12 months, and ahead of the market at the 2 and 3 year periods as well. Recommended Equity allocation is around 8%.

The inverse S&P 500 ETF (DOG) is approaching a BUY point, as it is BUY in short and intermediate periods but not in the long period, at least yet. If you care to try to profit on market weakness you can use an inverse ETF. I will wait until I get a long term signal before buying. read more

OTM Technical Model – ETF Backtesting Results

March 13, 2015 by Mark Bates

Useful Guide

August 6, 2014 by Mark Bates

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Sunday June 22 2014 market update

June 22, 2014 by Mark Bates

The technical models are listed below for the S&P (^GSPC) and the AGG Intermediate Bond ETF. In both cases, the model is signaling BUY for all periods (Short, Medium and Long). This is unchanged from the most recent notes over the past few weeks. read more

June 6 2014 – Just like last week. Only longer in the tooth.

June 6, 2014 by Mark Bates

All four ETF technicals (SPY for the S&P500, VEU for International, BSV for short term bonds, and TLT for long term bonds) are in the BUY range for all intervals. But there are some cracks developing, and deterioration particularly in the short term aspect of the models. Maybe we’ll sell in June and go away after all…stay tuned. read more

Miley Growth Fund

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Miley Income Fund

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