Economic Cycle | OnTheMark Investing

frequency of fred economic updates

January 20, 2021January 16, 2021 by Mark Bates

It varies.

Corporate Profits: Quarterly on first day of quarter

90 Day Treasury: Daily

Housing Starts: Monthly on first day of month

Dollar: Weekly on first day of month

Unemployment Rate: Monthly on first day of month read more

george dagnino

January 20, 2021January 16, 2021 by Mark Bates

Our analytic approach is designed to link technical investing techniques with economic data. This is described in many of the presentations by George Dagnino. We are attempting to automate this approach using the Amibroker trading software for convenience.

Dagnino’s books that we are baking into this analysis include “Easy Ways to Beat the Market with ETFs” and “Profiting in Bull or Bear Markets”.

https://www.peterdag.com/ read more

OTM Market Update – 1880 is here – Reality Check

January 17, 2016 by Mark Bates

Last week I wrote that you should keep an eye on the S&P for a fall to 1880. We are here.

The market is oversold in the short term. You should fade the increases by selling into them to further lighten your equity position. The downside risk is far higher than the potentially missed upside opportunity.

Often the market will give back 50% of its gain even on its way up. That puts the S&P at 1601. Even if it just gave back 38% of its gain it would drop to 1724 (a fibonacci retracement).

Lighten your equities this week. Inverse ETFs like DOG have not yet fired in the technical model but should soon.

Even if this market goes back up it will need much much more volume, buying power, and economic news to build a further leg up.

01172016 TLT daily 01172016 TLT hourly 01172016 GSPC hourly 01172106 GSPC

OTM Market Analysis – Are you a Long Term Investor?

March 7, 2015 by Mark Bates

Prior Week Market Performance:

The S&P large caps lost 1.6% last week to 2071.26.

The Russell 2000 small caps lost 1.3% last week to 1217.52.

Long Bonds (TLT) lost 4.7% last week to 123.50.

Asset Allocation Model: unchanged. Stocks (52.5%); Bonds (27.5%); Discretionary (20%)

OTM 4X KBA Current Holdings and Performance

December 21, 2014 by Mark Bates

As the OnTheMark 4X KBA Model (Technical combined with Value based Fundamentals like Intrinsic Value) progresses, here is a point in time analysis of the current holdings presuming the model is applied to all stocks in the US Equity market. I am still developing an ability to backtest using fundamental data (point in time Intrinsic value), so this analysis is based on what is going on right now in the model.

First a reminder. This model combines the current technical model with the following constraints: the security in question must have a price below calculated Intrinsic Value as well as in the lower third of the trailing 5 year PE range based upon current PE. These constraints should blend the technical model with a set of value-based stocks.

The model matches BUY recommendations with current winning trades and SELL recommendations with current losing trades 76% of the time. In 84% of instances where the model recommended a BUY, the stock is currently a winner. Those are relatively good numbers.

The blended average of all BUY recommendations against the performance of the S&P is mixed. Only in 41% of current BUY trades is the trade beating the market, but that is misleading. In aggregate gain percentage I believe that the model is ahead (the stocks in the 41% are beating the market by more than the 59% is not). Also, any trend following model such as this one will likely not beat the market in a pronounced bull market, but should beat the market in any downturn and I expect it to do so across an entire economic cycle.

The current results of the model are included in the Excel document below. Feel free to do your own analysis and I would love to collaborate to improve this model for all concerned.

Model Accuracy
BUY and chg%>0		124	265
SELL and chg%<0		141
BUY and chg%<0		24	85
SELL and chg%>0		61
N=	350
Model Accuracy %=		75.7%
BUY Win%=		83.8%
Versus the S&P 500
BUY and gain>S&P		61	41.2%
BUY and gain<S&P		87	58.8%

12212014 4x analysis

Miley Growth Fund

[stock_market_widget type=”table-portfolio” template=”basic” assets=”ANET,KLAC,LRCX,FTNT,AMAT,NVDA,KKR,KLIC,NFLX,NXST,LULU,ADBE,FB,FIVE,INTU,FND,AMZN,ARES,PYPL,PAYC” fields=”symbol,change_pct” search=”false” display_currency_symbol=”true” pagination=”true” rows_per_page=”30″ sort_field=”change_pct” sort_direction=”desc” alignment=”left” api=”yf” portfolio=”{‘ALGN’:{‘qty’:3.48,’p_price’:525.38},’FTNT’:{‘qty’:12.62,’p_price’:144.75},’ADBE’:{‘qty’:3.98,’p_price’:458.77},’SLM’:{‘qty’:131.65,’p_price’:13.88},’LULU’:{‘qty’:5.56,’p_price’:328.68},’NVDA’:{‘qty’:3.52,’p_price’:519.59},’NFLX’:{‘qty’:3.43,’p_price’:532.39},’ASML’:{‘qty’:3.42,’p_price’:534.16},’FB’:{‘qty’:7.07,’p_price’:258.33},’BLDR’:{‘qty’:47.77,’p_price’:38.25},’LAD’:{‘qty’:5.73,’p_price’:318.68},’VIPS’:{‘qty’:66.64,’p_price’:27.42},’FND’:{‘qty’:19.85,’p_price’:92.07},’OLLI’:{‘qty’:19.29,’p_price’:94.73},’MPWR’:{‘qty’:5.14,’p_price’:355.29},’EPAM’:{‘qty’:5.31,’p_price’:344.43},’BABA’:{‘qty’:7.2,’p_price’:253.83},’PYPL’:{‘qty’:7.8,’p_price’:234.31},’GOOGL’:{‘qty’:1,’p_price’:1827.36},’MKSI’:{‘qty’:11.56,’p_price’:158.07}}” ]

Miley Income Fund

[stock_market_widget type=”table-portfolio” template=”basic” assets=”XOM,PM,IRM,NNN,ABBV,FE,FHN,MRK,PDCO,AMGN,EOG,VTRS,RF,MET,PRU,CFG,OGE,DOW,LMT,JEPI” fields=”symbol,change_pct” search=”false” display_currency_symbol=”true” pagination=”false” rows_per_page=”30″ sort_field=”change_pct” sort_direction=”desc” alignment=”left” api=”yf” portfolio=”{‘PM’:{‘qty’:4.08,’p_price’:79.65},’PRU’:{‘qty’:4.15,’p_price’:78.28},’DOW’:{‘qty’:6.26,’p_price’:51.9},’OGE’:{‘qty’:10.64,’p_price’:30.52},’PFE’:{‘qty’:9.05,’p_price’:35.9},’CFG’:{‘qty’:8.92,’p_price’:36.44},’WU’:{‘qty’:14.59,’p_price’:22.27},’MET’:{‘qty’:6.75,’p_price’:48.15},’CC’:{‘qty’:12.33,’p_price’:26.34},’FITB’:{‘qty’:11.23,’p_price’:28.93},’DTE’:{‘qty’:2.73,’p_price’:118.86},’RF’:{‘qty’:19.1,’p_price’:17.01},’CAH’:{‘qty’:6.05,’p_price’:53.73},’SNV’:{‘qty’:8.73,’p_price’:37.2},’JEF’:{‘qty’:13.91,’p_price’:23.35},’MRK’:{‘qty’:4.22,’p_price’:77.07},’GPC’:{‘qty’:3.46,’p_price’:93.88},’MMM’:{‘qty’:1.85,’p_price’:175.66},’LMT’:{‘qty’:1,’p_price’:324.88},’JEPI’:{‘qty’:5.89,’p_price’:55.2}}” ]