OTM Market Update – December 6 – still buying

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  • The S&P large cap index gained 0.4% last week, rising to 2075.37.
  • The Russell 2000 small cap index rose 0.8% last week to 1182.43.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) lost 1.1% last week to 121.09.
  • Asset Allocation Model: unchanged. 52% Stocks, 27% Bonds, 20% Optional.

As has been true the past four weeks, the S&P technical model says BUY in all periods.  The month of December is also traditionally a good month for the market.

The broad market indexes, as well as long term bonds, are BUY in the technical model.  A 4% correction in the S&P would not presently violate any trend lines, so don’t be surprised (and don’t panic) if you see a bit of volatility and some profit taking before the end of December. read more

OTM Market Update – November 30 – BUY all around week #3

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  • The S&P gained 0.2% last week, rising to 2067.56.
  • The Russell 2000 rose 0.1% last week to 1173.23.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) rose 2.0% last week to 122.49.
  • Asset Allocation Model: unchanged. 52% Stocks, 27% Bonds, 20% Optional.

As has been true the past three weeks, the S&P technical model says BUY in all periods.  The small cap Russell 2000 has now flashed BUY.  Overall market performance across the board is “in gear” with a rising market.  The Asset Allocation model remains bullish, with stock allocation at 52%.  As the charts below indicate, now is generally a good time to enter the market with wise buys. read more

Miley Core Portfolio Commentary

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I am not making updates to the portfolio, but I do need to comment on some recent developments. Many of you are probably worried about IBM. I share your concern as the stock has grossly underperformed. I am going to give the CEO a few more quarters to show evidence of a turnaround before making a change. As for McDonald’s, I am also concerned with the CEO’s performance as results have been disappointing and some of his decisions have been questionable. But let’s give him some more time as well while we collect our dividends.   As to United Technologies, I was surprised to hear of the resignation of the CEO today (11/24). That is troublesome but again let’s wait and see because I think UTX is a solid company with good growth prospects in several areas.   Finally, as to Verizon, which was recently downgraded, I am not worried. The stock is still cheap at 14 times forward earnings and it pays a solid dividend. So hold on despite what Citibank says. read more

Miley Fundamental Portfolio Update

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I finally have some updates for the portfolio.  I am dropping DXPE and KLIC.  DXPE has performed well but I think there are better choices, while KLIC has gone nowhere.  In their place, I am buying Outerwall (OUTR) and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS).  Outerwall is the operator of Redbox and Coinstar kiosks.  Even with today’s outside gains due to the announced price hike in Redbox prices, I think that the stock is grossly undervalued as the intrinsic value is about 148.  Revenue growth over the past 5 years was 29%, EPS growth was 46%, return on equity is 33% and estimated earnings growth is about 18%.  As for Skyworks Solutions, they are an innovator of high reliability analog and mixed signal semiconductors.  I put its intrinsic value at about 92, so the stock is undervalued as well.  Past revenue growth was 23%, EPS growth was about 33%, return on equity is almost 20% and estimated earning growth is about 19%.  I think both of these stocks are great choices for the coming year. read more