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Regrets, I’ve had a few But then again, too few to mention

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The above quote from the “ole Blue Eyes” song sums up my thoughts on the Miley Growth Fund and the Miley Income Fund.  On the Growth Fund, I have regretted recommending BABA and VIPS – the performance of the fund would have been a lot better without them.  But as I mentioned, I think that the Chinese government will eventually come to its senses (and the stocks are improving a bit today).  It also illustrates the fact that diversification lessens the impact of bad choices like BABA and VIPS.  As for the other stocks in the growth fund, notice that my confidence in NFLX has been rewarded – the stock is rebounding today.  I may make some adjustments to the fund in January on the fund’s year anniversary, but for now stay the course with all of the stocks in the fund. read more

Commentary for week ending 08/21/2021

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I assume that most of you have seen the terrible events occurring in Afghanistan.  It is an example of gross mismanagement that one hopes will not recur.  As for the effect on the business world – probably not that much.  But I am concerned about the Chinese getting a further lock on “rare earths” needed for batteries and electronics.  Let us hope that the US finds more sources. read more

Commentary for the week ending 08/07/2021

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Hello, folks.  I have been monitoring the market situation but I haven’t had much to add to anything that I had already said.  But today I have some comments.

 

On the Infrastructure bill, I hope that it passes.  As I previously said, it does make sense to invest in improving our roads, bridges, airports, and broadband.  However, it doesn’t make sense to overspend with the Democrats 3.5 trillion wish list.  I think that it will be inflationary.   read more

July 2021 Analysis – Storm Clouds are Gathering

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The S&P 500 composite closed up over 2% higher in July than it did in June.  But underneath that statistic are some troubling data.

 

When looking across all sizes of companies (S&P100, S&P 400, S&P500, S&P 600) there are negative trends in New Highs vs New Lows, Advances v Decliners, and % of stocks above their 21 day moving average.  The market typically leads the economy by six months.  Economic data is still favoring Expansion versus Contraction, but now only by a score of 5-3 as opposed to 6-2 or better in recent months. read more

Commentary for the week ending 07/17/2021

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I am so glad that those poor families making only $150,000/year are receiving their first childcare credits!  Another example of government largesse gone wild.  Despite the paradoxical drop in bond prices, I think we are on the road to inflation, or maybe, as a Barron’s commentary said this weekend, the “stagflation” of the 1970’s.  “Stagflation”, for those you unfamiliar with the term, is inflation without growth.  read more

Commentary for week ending 07/10/2021

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My apologies for being a bit late on commentary.   Also, my apologies for picking OLLI, BABA and VIPS as they have performed terribly.  But their underperformance points makes my point on diversification – by allocating no more than 5% to any one stock, poor performance is ameliorated by good performance of the other stocks in the portfolio.  On OLLI, I still think it is undervalued, and I recommend holding it.  As for the Chinese stocks (BABA and VIPS), I think that the Chinese government is trying to send a strong message to the company owners that they are in charge.  But they will soon recognize that if they want the extraordinary revenues from these companies to continue, they will have to remove their jack boots from these companies’ necks.   read more

Month End June 2021 Comments

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The S&P 500 tracking ETF SPY rose 1.3% in the month of June.  Analysis of the FRED economic data show that the economy is still in Phase 2 (late growth cycle), which is good for equities.

 

The ETF Portfolio technical investing algorithm calls for a July 1 investment in International Bonds (EDV), Emerging Market Bonds (EMB), and long term Treasury bonds (VCLT).  This is consistent with increase in the flow of monies into bond funds, which indicates that people are hedging these equity ETF bets.  There is too much money chasing too little sources of return, so even low paying bonds are getting play here.   read more