Mark Bates

OTM Market Update January 10 2015

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Prior Week Market Performance

  • The S&P large cap index lost 0.7% last week to 2044.81.
  • The Russell 2000 small cap index lost 1.1% last week to 1185.68.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) gained 2.9% last week to 131.07.
  • Asset Allocation Model: materially unchanged at  52% Stocks, 27% Bonds, 19% Optional.

 Last Week’s Commentary:  we could have a 4% market drop in next 45 days but it would not alter upward intermediate trend

 This Week’s Commentary: the market is still inside of an ascending channel in the S&P500 as well as within a sideways range in the Russell 2000 (see charts immediately below).  All to the point that it is behaving as might be expected.  Although the long term trend is bullish there is room for a continued slight downward turn in the market over the next month or so and it should not worry longer term investors. read more

OTM Market Update January 3 2015

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  • The S&P large cap index lost 1.5% last week to 2058.20.
  • The Russell 2000 small cap index lost 1.4% last week to 1198.80.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) gained 2.3% last week to 127.32.
  • Asset Allocation Model: unchanged at  49% Stocks, 32% Bonds, 19% Optional.

The technical models continue to consider the broad market as a BUY, as has been the case for some weeks now.  The alert reader may notice that there is some deterioration along the edges, but not enough to change the overall recommendation. read more

OTM 4X KBA Current Holdings and Performance

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As the OnTheMark 4X KBA Model (Technical combined with Value based Fundamentals like Intrinsic Value) progresses, here is a point in time analysis of the current holdings presuming the model is applied to all stocks in the US Equity market.  I am still developing an ability to backtest using fundamental data (point in time Intrinsic value), so this analysis is based on what is going on right now in the model. read more

OTM Market Update – December 20

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  • The S&P large cap index gained 3.4% last week, rising to 2070.65.
  • The Russell 2000 small cap index gained 3.8% last week to 1195.96.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) lost 0.3% last week to 125.87.
  • Asset Allocation Model: slight downward adjustment in equities.  49% Stocks, 32% Bonds, 19% Optional.

As noted last week, the prior week’s adjustment was due, and the market continued to rise in line with the broader technical models.

The very small change in the Asset Allocation model does not warrant action. read more

OTM Market Update – A light on Asset Allocation

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  • The S&P large cap index lost 3.5% last week, rising to 2002.33.
  • The Russell 2000 small cap index lost 2.5% last week to 1152.45.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) gained 4.3% last week to 126.30.
  • Asset Allocation Model: unchanged. 52% Stocks, 27% Bonds, 20% Optional.

The S&P fell last week but did not violate the trailing chandelier stop.  It pays to be diversified — Long Bonds rose 4.3% last week.  For the long term investor, the Weekly S&P should give you some perspective.  This past week’s adjustment was due, and does not in and of itself constitute a reverse in the trend.  The technical models remain positive. read more

Tax Planning Guide

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Whether you do your own taxes the old fashioned way (paper), use TurboTax, or rely on a competent CPA like Bill Lupone, the attached link to the tax guide from the American Association of Independent Investors is a must read.  This is a guide for the 2014-2015 tax season.  Not terribly long but it covers the significant bases. read more