Dan Miley

Commentary for the week ending 04/29/2022

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Well, this has been a rough week (and month/quarter), especially for growth investors.  I have been particularly disappointed in PYPL and NFLX.  I think that NFLX will recover – I think worries over subscriber defections are overblown.  There is still room for growth, especially outside of the US.  But we will see.  As for PYPL, I am less than sanguine.  Management has been less than open with their reports.  So I can’t say I would buy more.  As for the rest of the stocks, stay the course and I still think you will be rewarded.  I am especially confident that AMZN will rebound.  Increases in Amazon Prime cost will absorb some of the higher shipping costs and it seems that AWS is unstoppable in the cloud market.  So buy more AMZN with confidence in long term returns.  I know that the fund has failed to beat the S&P so far this year, so again, in the long term I feel that these stocks will win. read more

Commentary for week ending 03/05/2022

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With all of the events happening in Ukraine, my comments will be somewhat brief.  

 

I want to remind you that panic is not a strategy.  Baron Rothschild, an 18th-century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with this saying:  “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”  This is an important reminder, especially if you are a 401k and/or IRA investor building your portfolio.  So continue to make regular investments in the market and don’t worry.  And if you are following my 90/10 rule on allocation, put the 10% cash to use!   read more

Commentary for the first 2 weeks of 2022

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Well, the first 2 weeks have been rough for the Growth Fund.  Recognition of inflation is finally showing up in the market, leading to a tech sector selloff.  I think much of the selloff is unjustified, particularly in the chip sector like LRCX, AMAT, and NVDA.  I think that these stocks will recover and exceed expectations by the end of the year.  So be patient, I think that these stocks represent buying opportunities – in fact, all of the stocks in the growth fund represent good values right now.  And Amazon is bargain priced now, I never thought I would say that about them but with AWS and the retail sector recovering, I see the stock at about 4,000 by year end.   It is a top pick now. read more

Review of 2021 and Picks for 2022

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My 2021 picks for the Growth Fund did pretty well, didn’t they?  Fortinet and Nvidia hit the ball out of the park!  But they were balanced out on the downside by BABA, OLLI and VIPS.  The fund would have down so much better without the losers, but hey, I still beat the S&P.  And I did advise taking profits in BABA and VIPS when they were up substantially.  OLLI never did get any traction, did it?  For 2022, I hope to do better (no Chinese stocks for me!), so here are my stocks in order of preference (some are carry overs from last year): read more

Enron Bankruptcy “Anniversary”

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Enron filed for bankruptcy 20 years ago today:

 

Enron Files For Bankruptcy – HISTORY

 

Enron had a lot of good ideas but corrupt management ruined it. I actually bought Enron shares in the 1990’s because I liked the idea of deregulation (which has saved consumers money). Fortunately for me, I sold my shares in 2000 and early 2001. The bankruptcy was a lesson for employees to NOT invest all of their retirement savings in their employer! I limit my stock exposure to no more than 5% in any one stock, regardless of how allegedly “safe” an investment is.  Just think about General Motors, Sears, JC Penney, Kodak, Polaroid, etc.  In 1975, if someone said GM would go under, they would be laughed out of the room!  So, protect yourself from the fate of Enron employees who tied up most of their retirement savings in one company! read more

A hedge for Inflation

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Some of you may remember that I touted the virtues of I-bonds back in July.  Now CNBC finally sees my wisdom:

 

Sweating inflation? This risk-free bond pays 7.12% for next six months (cnbc.com)

 

Also note that you can buy up $5000.00 in paper bonds if you get a tax refund.  Finally, note that boring old EE bonds are still guaranteed to double if held for 20 years – that works out to be a 3.5% rate of return (considering that a regular 20-year Treasury only pays 1.87%).   read more

Commentary for the week of 11/29/2021

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Well, another week, another COVID variant.  This one is called “Omicron”.  Biden is banning non-Americans flying in from South African countries starting today.  Americans can enter assuming that they test negative for a COVID test (which is not always accurate and the incubation period is variable).    I guess that the virus must be smarter than we thought.  Apparently it can check a person’s passport and not infect Americans!  Utter nonsense.  The virus is probably already in the US so the ban will probably won’t do anything.  The real answer is to help those countries get vaccinated ASAP – Africa is the least vaccinated in the world.   read more