Commentary for week ending 08/21/2021

I assume that most of you have seen the terrible events occurring in Afghanistan.  It is an example of gross mismanagement that one hopes will not recur.  As for the effect on the business world – probably not that much.  But I am concerned about the Chinese getting a further lock on “rare earths” needed for batteries and electronics.  Let us hope that the US finds more sources. read more

Commentary for the week ending 08/07/2021

Hello, folks.  I have been monitoring the market situation but I haven’t had much to add to anything that I had already said.  But today I have some comments.

 

On the Infrastructure bill, I hope that it passes.  As I previously said, it does make sense to invest in improving our roads, bridges, airports, and broadband.  However, it doesn’t make sense to overspend with the Democrats 3.5 trillion wish list.  I think that it will be inflationary.   read more

July 2021 Analysis – Storm Clouds are Gathering

The S&P 500 composite closed up over 2% higher in July than it did in June.  But underneath that statistic are some troubling data.

 

When looking across all sizes of companies (S&P100, S&P 400, S&P500, S&P 600) there are negative trends in New Highs vs New Lows, Advances v Decliners, and % of stocks above their 21 day moving average.  The market typically leads the economy by six months.  Economic data is still favoring Expansion versus Contraction, but now only by a score of 5-3 as opposed to 6-2 or better in recent months. read more