March 31 2021 Analysis Summary


Economic Phase:  5-3 in favor of continued Expansion.  Specifically indicating Phase 2 (late Expansion).  No change from last month end.

  • Expectation:  continued growth of the economy and sectors that are highly correlated to economic expansion
  • As others have noted, inflation will likely continue to inch up as well

Retirement ETF Portfolio:  BUY signal for XLU (SPDR Utilities).  No SELL signals

  • Holding XLY SPDR Consumer Discretionary since 7/1/2020
  • Holding XLK SPDR Technology since 7/1/2020
  • Holding VNQ Real Estate since 12/1/2020
  • Holding FDL Dividend Leaders since 12/1/2020
  • Holding XLV SPDR Healthcare since 12/1/2020
  • Now will BUY XLU SPDR Utilities at open 4/1/2021

At the March 3rd meeting of the Atlanta Technical Analysis Society I forecasted the S&P to end March at 3980, which was a contrarian opinion since the S&P was at 3819 and the majority of analysts predicted an upcoming drop in March.  It ended up for the month at 3972, which likely means that I won this past month’s contest with the closest forecast of the S&P close for March.  See, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn from time to time.  



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