February 27 2021 Economic Check

FRED data indicates a continued (perhaps even stronger) confirmation of Phase 2: Expansion approaching Peak.  Coupled with the weakness in the bond market, and the impending economic stimulus coming from Congress, this confirms that equities should continue to outperform in the next 30 days.

 

 

Phase 1: Expansion leaving Trough
Phase 2: Expansion approaching Peak
Phase 3: Contraction leaving Peak
Phase 4: Contraction approaching Trough

 

DGS3MO 90-day Treasury Indicator
DGS3MO ind=0.07
Phase Prediction=1

 

DBC COMMODITY INDICATOR
DBC price=16.73
Phase Prediction=2

 

SPY BROAD MARKET INDICATOR
SPY price=380.36
Phase Prediction=2

 

UNRATE UNEMPLOYMENT INDICATOR
UNRATE ind=6.7
Phase Prediction=2

 

HOUST HOUSING STARTS CONFIRMATION
HOUST ind=1669
Phase Prediction=3

 

VIXCLS CBOE Volatility Indicator
Phase Prediction=3

 

TWEXM US DOLLAR INDICATOR
TWEXM ind=91.5077
Phase Prediction=2

 

XLU UTILITIES INDICATED PHASE
XLU ind=58.36
Phase Prediction=2

 

Phase Predictor Indicator
Phase 1 Total = 1
Phase 2 Total = 5
Phase 3 Total = 2
Phase 4 Total = 0
Current Phase=2

Leave a Comment