April 2021 Analysis Summary

Economic Phase:  Continues 5-3 in favor of continued Expansion.  Specifically indicating Phase 2 (late Expansion).  No change from last month end.

  • Expectation:  continued growth of the economy and sectors that are highly correlated to economic expansion
  • As others have noted, inflation will likely continue to inch up as well

Retirement ETF Portfolio:  No additional BUY signals.  No SELL signals

  • Holding XLY SPDR Consumer Discretionary since 7/1/2020
  • Holding XLK SPDR Technology since 7/1/2020
  • Holding VNQ Real Estate since 12/1/2020
  • Holding FDL Dividend Leaders since 12/1/2020
  • Holding XLV SPDR Healthcare since 12/1/2020
  • Holding XLU SPDR Utilities since 4/1/2021.  Gain of 4.35% since purchase last month.

One look at the S&P since March, 2020 tells you the whole story here.  The market has gone up and up powered in large part by the various stimulus initiatives including the latest one.  There is optimism with a hint of concern about inflation and COVID re-opening.  


Since the market has been directional over the past 14 months, a 200dma based system such as that which we are using for our ETF portfolio should have some effectiveness in keeping us out of a material correction.  Remains to be seen.  The market is frothy.  Don’t overtrade.

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