Current Projection: Model votes 5-3 in favor of Expansion over Contraction. Model favors an estimated economic Phase 2 Late Stage Expansion. This favors ETFs that are positively correlated with the overall economy.
The economic elements of the modeling are elemental and will be expanded. The intent here is to match the economic cycle with the ETF security type as a double-check on entry of a trade. We want to enter trades during times where the economic expansion/contraction matches the likelihood that a particular ETF will rise in value.
Version 52
Phase 1: Expansion leaving Trough
Phase 2: Expansion approaching Peak
Phase 3: Contraction leaving Peak
Phase 4: Contraction approaching Trough
DGS3MO 90-day Treasury Indicator
DGS3MO ind=0.07
Phase Prediction=1
DBC COMMODITY INDICATOR
DBC price=15.19
Phase Prediction=2
SPY BROAD MARKET INDICATOR
SPY price=370.07
Phase Prediction=3
UNRATE UNEMPLOYMENT INDICATOR
UNRATE ind=6.7
Phase Prediction=2
HOUST HOUSING STARTS CONFIRMATION
HOUST ind=1669
Phase Prediction=2
VIXCLS CBOE Volatility Indicator
Phase Prediction=3
CP CORPORATE PROFITS CONFIRMATION
CP ind=2118.86
Phase Prediction=3
XLU UTILITIES INDICATED PHASE
XLU ind=62.15
Phase Prediction=1
Phase Predictor Indicator
Phase 1 Total = 2
Phase 2 Total = 3
Phase 3 Total = 3
Phase 4 Total = 0