OTM Market Update — Watching things carefully

Yes the market dropped today but you have to look at it in the grand scheme.  Below are graphs going back to 2005.  Technically the S&P will need some more confirming sideways or downward action to be material to an intermediate or long term investor.  Additionally the asset allocation has shifted slightly (200 basis points) away from equities but not decidedly.

Remember the charts below.  This market has gone up for some time and for those of you who have ridden the wave all the way up, be patient right now.  There will be sufficient indication to tell you when to materially shift your holdings and your market opinion.  Taking the long view, the market will need to adjust a bit more downward to be material.  And the technical model says that as well.

Right now the base technical model is interestingly only SELL in the Intermediate term.  None of the other micro/small/midcap measures are SELL long term and they are usually leaders.

Watching things carefully.  Just watching.

 

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08202015 GSPC

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