OTM Market Update – 1880 is here – Reality Check

Last week I wrote that you should keep an eye on the S&P for a fall to 1880.  We are here.

The market is oversold in the short term.  You should fade the increases by selling into them to further lighten your equity position.  The downside risk is far higher than the potentially missed upside opportunity.

Often the market will give back 50% of its gain even on its way up.  That puts the S&P at 1601.  Even if it just gave back 38% of its gain it would drop to 1724 (a fibonacci retracement).

Lighten your equities this week.  Inverse ETFs like DOG have not yet fired in the technical model but should soon.

Even if this market goes back up it will need much much more volume, buying power, and economic news to build a further leg up.

01172016 TLT daily 01172016 TLT hourly 01172016 GSPC hourly 01172106 GSPC

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