Prior Week Market Performance
- The S&P large cap index lost 1.2% last week to 2019.42.
- The Russell 2000 small cap index lost 0.8% last week to 1176.66.
- Long Bonds (TLT) gained 1.6% last week to 133.19.
- Asset Allocation Model: materially changed at 44%(down from 52%) Stocks, 39%(down from 27%) Bonds, 17% Optional.
Last Week’s Commentary: room for slight downward trend but technical indicators all indicate BUY in medium and long term periods
This Week’s Commentary: actually for intermediate and long term investors the market is doing exactly what one might expect. You’ll note below that the S&P 500 is staying inside of an ascending trend (just barely), and the Russell 2000 has, as might be expected, reverted to the mean of the year long channel marked by the two red lines. The technical model has appropriately indicated that the S&P 500 is not a BUY in the short term. Long term bonds are moving up at too rapid a pace, but indicative of the underlying anxiety in other world currencies.
Prior Week Market Performance
- The S&P large cap index lost 0.7% last week to 2044.81.
- The Russell 2000 small cap index lost 1.1% last week to 1185.68.
- Long Bonds (TLT) gained 2.9% last week to 131.07.
- Asset Allocation Model: materially unchanged at 52% Stocks, 27% Bonds, 19% Optional.
Last Week’s Commentary: we could have a 4% market drop in next 45 days but it would not alter upward intermediate trend
This Week’s Commentary: the market is still inside of an ascending channel in the S&P500 as well as within a sideways range in the Russell 2000 (see charts immediately below). All to the point that it is behaving as might be expected. Although the long term trend is bullish there is room for a continued slight downward turn in the market over the next month or so and it should not worry longer term investors.
This is a reminder that the next investment club meeting is on Monday, January 12th at 7 PM.
Phone: (502) 292-4847 Conference ID: 53422
Roll call – Ed
Review and approve minutes of last meeting
Treasurer’s Report – Ed
In his 1/1/2015 post Phil laid out the investment cases for CNW, IR and RCL, which he will overview at the next OTM club meeting on January 12th. All of those securities have calculated Intrinsic Values (IVs) that are above current price, and they are all BUY status on the OTM technical model.
- The S&P large cap index lost 1.5% last week to 2058.20.
- The Russell 2000 small cap index lost 1.4% last week to 1198.80.
- Long Bonds (TLT) gained 2.3% last week to 127.32.
- Asset Allocation Model: unchanged at 49% Stocks, 32% Bonds, 19% Optional.
The technical models continue to consider the broad market as a BUY, as has been the case for some weeks now. The alert reader may notice that there is some deterioration along the edges, but not enough to change the overall recommendation.
PDW Revew Of CNW
PDW Revew Of IR
PDW Revew Of RCL
Attached are the analysis of the three stocks I am presenting at the January meeting. The stocks were pulled from the 4X stock screen and are: CNW (Conway); RCL (Royal Carribean); IR (Ingersol-Rand).
Conservative. Smart. Investing.