OTM Market Update December 27

  • The S&P large cap index gained 0.9% last week, rising to 2088.77.
  • The Russell 2000 small cap index gained 1.6% last week to 1215.21.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) lost 1.2% last week to 124.41.
  • Asset Allocation Model: unchanged at  49% Stocks, 32% Bonds, 19% Optional.

The market is “in gear”, as Micro, Small, Medium and Large-Cap models are all “BUY”, while negatively correlated assets such as Gold and Long Bonds dropped as would be expected.   Now would be a good time to look at your important asset allocation percentages, and adjust your positions accordingly keeping in mind the tax implications of gains and losses. read more

OTM 4X KBA Current Holdings and Performance

As the OnTheMark 4X KBA Model (Technical combined with Value based Fundamentals like Intrinsic Value) progresses, here is a point in time analysis of the current holdings presuming the model is applied to all stocks in the US Equity market.  I am still developing an ability to backtest using fundamental data (point in time Intrinsic value), so this analysis is based on what is going on right now in the model. read more

OTM Market Update – December 20

  • The S&P large cap index gained 3.4% last week, rising to 2070.65.
  • The Russell 2000 small cap index gained 3.8% last week to 1195.96.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) lost 0.3% last week to 125.87.
  • Asset Allocation Model: slight downward adjustment in equities.  49% Stocks, 32% Bonds, 19% Optional.

As noted last week, the prior week’s adjustment was due, and the market continued to rise in line with the broader technical models.

The very small change in the Asset Allocation model does not warrant action. read more

OTM Market Update – A light on Asset Allocation

  • The S&P large cap index lost 3.5% last week, rising to 2002.33.
  • The Russell 2000 small cap index lost 2.5% last week to 1152.45.
  • Long Bonds (TLT) gained 4.3% last week to 126.30.
  • Asset Allocation Model: unchanged. 52% Stocks, 27% Bonds, 20% Optional.

The S&P fell last week but did not violate the trailing chandelier stop.  It pays to be diversified — Long Bonds rose 4.3% last week.  For the long term investor, the Weekly S&P should give you some perspective.  This past week’s adjustment was due, and does not in and of itself constitute a reverse in the trend.  The technical models remain positive. read more

Tax Planning Guide

Whether you do your own taxes the old fashioned way (paper), use TurboTax, or rely on a competent CPA like Bill Lupone, the attached link to the tax guide from the American Association of Independent Investors is a must read.  This is a guide for the 2014-2015 tax season.  Not terribly long but it covers the significant bases. read more

OTM Intrinsic Value Formula

At the meeting yesterday the question was raised about the specific calculation used to determine Intrinsic Value.  There are a number of different approaches — the code for the one presently used (I am happy to refine or improve it) is noted below.  It takes the next 10 years of discounted earnings and adds it to a discounted terminal value based on Enterprise to EBITDA ratio. read more

Stock Presentation – ONNN

Linda volunteered to present a potential investment, but she is currently researching other hot investment opportunities – real estate in Florida.

Therefore, I picked one of the most recent additions from the 4x algorithm that Mark will be presenting – ONNN.   The summary of my recommendation is attached along with other reports for paid analysts for your review and consideration. read more